ITA Economic Forecast
2025 Election Aftermath and Economic Indicators
By Brian Feehan, President, Industrial Truck Association
THE PERVASIVE UNCERTAINTY leading into 2025 stands out. Candidates from federal, state and local levels diverged sharply on issues such as healthcare, climate, taxes and foreign policy, leaving voters to weigh what matters most to them and their families. Markets, too, are grappling with this uncertainty, underscoring the importance of key economic indicators.
U.S. Economic Indicators
The International Monetary Fund projects global economic growth at 3.2% in 2024, edging up to 3.3% in 2025. In the U.S., the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported a 3% annual GDP increase in Q2 2024, up from 1.4% in Q1, driven by consumer spending and investments in private inventory and nonresidential fixed assets. However, rising imports, which reduce GDP, contributed to balancing out these gains.
Unemployment has risen since early 2023, reaching 4% in Q2 2024. The job market showed record lows in 2023, yet as of Q2 2024, 6.8 million Americans are unemployed, marking the highest level since October 2021. Meanwhile, U.S. census data shows manufactured durable goods orders rose 9.9% to $289.6 billion in July 2024, with transportation equipment orders increasing by 34.8%, contributing to the positive GDP trend in Q2. Light-vehicle sales, however, dropped 4.5% in August 2024 to a 15.1 million annual rate, down 1.1% year-over-year due to supply chain disruptions and a cyberattack affecting dealers. However, hybrid and electric vehicle sales climbed from 17.8% to 18.7% between Q1 and Q2 2024.
Trading also reflects shifts as the monthly international trade deficit rose to $78.8 billion in July from $73 billion in June, primarily due to an increase in imports.
North American Forklift Market
Retail forklift orders in North America reached 128,000 by August 2024, with an annualized projection of 192,000. This is the lowest since 2013, and a 57,000-unit drop compared to 2023, the largest decrease since the Great Recession. The trend toward electric trucks continues, accounting for 72% of sales in August 2024, up from 66% in 2023, while internal combustion trucks dropped to 28% from 34%.
Year-to-date, Class 1 truck orders reached 28,000, down from 53,000 in 2023. For Classes 4 and 5, orders totaled 64,000 compared to 85,000 in 2023. In engine type for Classes 4 and 5, LPG trucks hold a 68.9% share but dropped from 82.2% in 2023, while diesel trucks rose to 27.1%. Gasoline-powered trucks accounted for a smaller 4% share. Warehouse trucks rebounded with a 50% share for August 2024, up five points from 2023, while counterbalance trucks dipped to 50%.
External Factors and Trade Policy
U.S. trade policy continues to spark debate, as many question whether global trade weakens American economic stability. This evolving stance is not uniform, and various stakeholders, including businesses and policymakers, remain engaged in articulating the benefits of global trade.
On the regulatory front, the California Air Resources Board finalized a new regulation on June 27, 2024, to transition toward a fully electrified vehicle market by January 2026, with phase-in schedules and exceptions for internal combustion engines. Industry groups, including the Industrial Truck Association (ITA), participated in regulatory discussions to prevent adverse impacts on the industry and end-users.
ITA also celebrated National Forklift Safety Day on June 11, 2024, marking 11 years of emphasizing safety and operator training. National Forklift Safety Day has fostered cooperation between ITA and the Occupational Safety and Health Administration, strengthening workplace safety standards across the industry.
